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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-03-06T04:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-06T04:09Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44955/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2. A GOES CCOR-1 eclipse briefly obscures early frames of the CME, and the LASCO C3 pylon obscures analysis in running difference imagery. The source is a small filament eruption centered around S25E30 starting around 2026-03-06T02:32Z in GOES SUVI 304, also observed as some brightening and field line movement in GOES SUVI 171/195/284/304 and some dimming in GOES SUVI 171/195.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-10T03:44Z (-11.76h, +9.89h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
*** LASCO ***
Time of Launch: 2026/03/06 03:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 17:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 19:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
POS Difference: 2:20
POS Midpoint: 18:10Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 14:30

Numeric View/Impact Type: +2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.62
Travel Time: ~6.62 * 14:30 = 96:04

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2026-03-10T03:44Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2026/03/07 15:53Z
Lead Time: 59.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2026-03-07T15:56Z
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